U.S. GDP Quarter-on-Quarter Annualized Growth Rates

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7 financial heavyweights have unveiled forecasts for a sudden US recession. Here's what they had to say about the economic damage coronavirus will cause.

GDP Forecasts – Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche, and J.P. Morgan predicted U.S. GDP will decline by 38-40% in Q2 2020, with Deutsche revising by 27 percentage points from March forecast


Summary:

  • Actual Q1 GDP Decline – U.S. economy contracted by 4.8% in Q1 2020, according to incomplete data from Commerce Department, as nation felt impact of widespread lockdowns starting March 2020
  • Q2 Economic Recession – As of May 15, 2020, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche, and J.P. Morgan predicted largest quarter-on-quarter annualized decline of 38-40% in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in Q2, with Deutsche revising forecast from 13% in March
  • Affected Industries – Include manufacturing with plant closures from biggest automakers, supply chain disruptions and affected production in China; services that need face-to-face interaction (e.g., sports and entertainment, transportation, hotels and restaurants); as well as construction and real estate sector from cancelled open house events and projects
  • Worst Since WWII – Deutsche Bank and Bank of America compare dip in Q2 as worst quarterly decline since post-war period, dating back to World War II
  • Bankruptcies and Trade War – UBS foresees potential bankruptcies in strained sectors and possible international trade war will add greater uncertainty to its forecast
  • Second Half Recovery – Same banks did not revise expectation of recovery in 2020 H2, depending on effectivity of mitigation and testing, government stimulus package which could increase consumer spending, and ending of social distancing
Companies: Bank of America , Deutsche Bank , Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley , UBS
Sources:

Original publication date: March 23, 2020

Date last updated: May 15, 2020