Multiple solutions are being proposed and assessed for combating the COVID-19 crisis and creating a path back to normalcy

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Path Forward to Normalcy Post COVID-19 – Multiple solutions are being proposed and assessed for combating the COVID-19 crisis and creating a path back to normalcy


Summary:

  • Social Distancing – Widely implemented policy that limits physical and social interaction to suppress spread of infection and alleviate burden placed on healthcare system, but significantly depresses economic activity, increases unemployment and disrupts multiple aspects of society
  • Extensive Testing – Mass testing for infection and anti-bodies can enable data-driven economic decisions and identify people who developed immunity, with development of low-cost, rapid testing kits and increased testing possible within next three months
  • Contact Tracing – Use of technology and apps to alert people of potential exposure, speed up analysis and make informed decisions, but may require additional two to four months of development, trade-off between privacy and security, and successful opt-in adoption
  • Effective Treatments – Availability of effective treatments that lessen symptoms, severe cases and number of deaths, but may take three to six months to discover, develop and prove effectiveness
  • Herd Immunity from Infection – Achieving critical mass of people infected who develop immunity, which allows COVID-19 to dissipate and enables immune people to come back to work over the next 12 to 24 months, but could cause up to 1% of infected population to die
  • Widespread Vaccine – Development and global distribution of vaccine leading to equivalent of herd immunity, enabling society and economy to gradually return to normal, which could take 12 to 18 or more months

We plan to update this chart on a regular basis, as new data and estimates become available.

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Date last updated: April 14, 2020