Economic Indicators and Forecasts – Overview

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche, and J.P. Morgan predicted U.S. GDP will decline by 38-40% in Q2 2020, with Deutsche revising by 27 percentage points from March forecast (May 15, 2020)

Based on U.S. WEI, 2020 Q2 GDP may drop between 10 to 11 percentage points from 2019 performance, after underlying metrics saw a drastic decline beginning in March primarily brought about by the COVID-19 crisis (June 23, 2020)

U.S. Federal Reserve said unemployment could reach 32.1%, totaling 47 million people in Q2 2020, eight times more than 4.4% in Q1 2020, and worse than Great Depression (May 15, 2020)

U.S. unemployment insurance initial claims that surged due to the COVID-19 pandemic-related layoffs continues to decline at 1.54 million in June 2020, after peaking in March at almost seven million (June 23, 2020)

Same store sales based on U.S. Redbook Index declined beginning in April 2020 following the negative economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic, after posting consistent increase on a weekly in the first quarter of the yeear (June 23, 2020)

Cboe Volatility Index (measures 30-day volatility of S&P500 stocks) spiked to $66 in end of March 2020, with future contracts forecasted to slowly decline from $30 range through year end (June 23, 2020)